The Round of 16 tie between Cruz Azul and Monterrey will be decided in the second leg of the Concacaf Champions Cup. The Maquina head into the decisive match with a 3–2 aggregate lead after securing a dramatic comeback victory.
In that opening game, Nicolas Larcamon‘s men rallied late to take control of the series. Goals from Erik Lira and Gonzalo Piovi helped keep them within reach before Nicolas Ibañez scored a stunning 90th-minute winner.
Now the return match will determine which Liga MX powerhouse moves on to the quarterfinals. With just one goal separating the sides on aggregate, every possible result in the second leg could reshape the outcome of the tie.
What happens if Cruz Azul beat Monterrey today?
If Cruz Azul defeat Monterrey in the second leg, they will advance to the quarterfinals of the Concacaf Champions Cup and face the winner of the Los Angeles FC vs LD Alajuelense series.
Carlos Rotondi of Cruz Azul controls the ball in 2026 (Source: Hector Vivas/Getty Images)
Cruz Azul already hold a 3–2 aggregate lead after winning the first leg in Monterrey, so another victory would extend their advantage and comfortably send them through to the next round.
Advancing would keep alive their title defense in the regional competition after winning the 2025 Concacaf Champions Cup, where they defeated the Vancouver Whitecaps in the final.
What happens if Cruz Azul and Monterrey tie?
If Cruz Azul and Monterrey draw in the second leg, the Maquina would still advance to the quarterfinals. Because the Mexican side enters the match with a one-goal aggregate advantage, any draw would keep them ahead.
Unlike some past editions of the tournament, the tie is decided simply by the aggregate score across the two legs. That means Monterrey must win the second leg to overturn the deficit. If Cruz Azul manage a draw, their advantage from the first game would be enough to move on.
What happens if Cruz Azul lose to Monterrey today?
If Cruz Azul lose the second leg, the outcome of the series would depend on the margin of defeat. Since the away goals rule exists in the Concacaf Champions Cup, a one-goal loss would still see Cruz Azul advance as long as Monterrey score less than three goals (e.g: Cruz Azul 0-1 Monterrey, Cruz Azul 1-2 Monterrey).
If Cruz Azul lose 2-3 to Monterrey, the game will go to extra time, and if the draw persists, penalties will decide the winner.
A defeat by two or more goals would eliminate Cruz Azul and allow Monterrey to advance. Nicolas Sanchez’s team remains a dangerous opponent in continental competitions, as it has a strong history in the region.
