Preview: UFC Baku Prelims – Abdullaev vs. Nascimento

BETTING ODDS: Abdullaev (-120); Nascimento
(+100)

In an opening bout added at the last moment, Azerbaijani prospect
Abdullaev will look to ignite the Baku crowd against fellow UFC
debutant Nascimento. Abdullaev is a well-traveled prospect in the
most literal sense of the word—his last five fights have taken
place in five different countries—who has picked up some good wins,
but always seemed to lose at the most inopportune times.

The aptly nicknamed “Tank” is a brawny, powerfully built
lightweight who has an unorthodox approach to go with his
physicality. He tends to reach out and paw with his lead hand, then
use a nice front kick as a sort of alternate jab. He both needs to
get into close quarters as a short lightweight, and wants to, as a
fighter who does his best work when he can drag an opponent to the
canvas, deliver ground strikes and look for strong-man topside
submissions.

It is difficult to gauge Abdullaev’s development because, after
five or six years of fighting a very credible slate in Central Asia
and the Middle East, Abdullaev has been matched with some dismal
opposition recently. His last two wins—the fights which
theoretically prompted the UFC to sign him—saw Abdullaev against an
opponent on a five-fight losing streak who was so overwhelmed that
he choked him out with an arm-triangle from the wrong side,
basically squeezing him into submission, then tow his 18-3 record
into a fight with a 1-1 foe in a matchup that many North American
commissions might have refused to sanction.

Nascimento is even more of a mystery than Abdullaev. How
mysterious? In nearly six years of previewing every UFC card,
around 250 events and well over 3000 fights, I believe this is the
first time I’ve gone to press without being able to verify a
fighter’s date of birth. Based on the commentary in
Legacy Fighting Alliance, where he won and defended an interim
belt, my guess is he’s around 26, but we’ll all find out together
this week.

At this point in his development, Nascimento is a raw talent with
some physical gifts. He is also stocky, muscular and athletic, and
he is effective as an orthodox brawler. While his basic striking
approach is textbook “Brazilian regional scrapper,” he does have a
nice tactical wrinkle in that he is always on the lookout for sneak
takedowns, whether it’s a reactive level change or just reaching
out for a snatch single-leg. While some of them are earnest
takedown attempts and others look more like feints, both are
effective in keeping his opponents guessing.

The odds on this fight are a near pick ‘em, which is probably
appropriate considering that neither man is really a known
quantity. This is the kind of UFC rookie-versus-rookie matchup that
is especially tough to predict, because each man might be the best
fighter the other has faced. I lean towards the Brazilian as the
(probably?) younger fighter, the one with superior natural tools
and, thanks to that final run in LFA, the better recent strength of
schedule. The pick is Nascimento by decision.

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Abdullaev vs. Nascimento