On the first full day of NCAA Tournament action, there were several notable performances, with Tyler Tanner, Terence Hill Jr., and Morez Johnson among those leading the way.
For Friday, I’ll be backing a pair of Big East big men who have been battling each other all season. Additionally, Braden Smith is in line for a historic night, but he still may go Under one of his prop lines in the process.
So, here’s my NCAA Tournament player props for Friday’s first-round games.
NCAA Tournament Player Props for Friday, March 20
- Zuby Ejiofor Over 17.5 Points (-105, bet365)
- Braden Smith Under 10.5 Assists (-120, Fanatics)
- Tarris Reed Over 14.5 Points (-110, bet365)
Zuby Ejiofor Over 17.5 Points (-105)
vs. Northern Iowa | 7:10 p.m. ET
St. John’s enters this tournament having won 19 of its past 20, capturing both the Big East regular-season and conference tournament championships.
Zuby Ejiofor has led the way, averaging 16.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. That earned him First-Team All-Big East honors, Big East Player of the Year, and Big East Defensive Player of the Year.
While he is a basket under this line on average, he enters this tournament on a roll. Ejiofor has scored 18 points in each of his past five games. He has scored 20 points in four, averaging 20.6 points per game during the stretch.
St. John’s is facing a Northern Iowa team that ranks third nationally in 3-point shooting allowed, but 98th in 2-point shooting allowed. St. John’s is not a prolific 3-point shooting team to begin with, so head coach Rick Pitino’s game plan may be to pound the ball inside.
If so, Ejiofor should feast in this first-round matchup.
Pick: Zuby Ejiofor Over 17.5 Points
Braden Smith Under 10.5 Assists (-120)
vs. Queens NC | 7:35 p.m. ET
For the second consecutive season, Braden Smith was a consensus First-Team All-American.
He is also in line to make history tonight as he needs two assists to pass Bobby Hurley as the NCAA’s all-time assist leader.
While Smith has something in the realm of -10000000 odds to get assists, I have doubts about him getting 11 tonight.
Smith averages nine assists per game. He had 16 in Purdue’s first Big Ten Tournament victory over Northwestern and 11 in the championship game against Michigan.
However, those are the only two instances in the past 10 games in which he eclipsed 10.5 assists. He has stayed Under 10.5 assists in 25 of 35 (71%) games this season.
The Boilermakers should score early and often, as their team total is 92.5 points. But they’re also -25.5 on the spread, and if they approach covering that large number, Smith will likely exit this game early to get ready for their second-round matchup.
He has gone under 10.5 assists in eight of 10 career NCAA Tournament games, which includes games against Farleigh Dickinson, Grambling, Utah State, High Point, and McNeese State.
Though he will get another mid-major tonight, this line may be too high.
Pick: Braden Smith Under 10.5 Assists
Tarris Reed Over 14.5 Points (-110)
vs. Furman | 10 p.m. ET
When Tarris Reed is on his game, he is one of UConn’s most impactful players.
He has scored 15 points in six of his past 10 games. That includes 20 points and 17 in two matchups with St. John’s.
Furman heads into the NCAA Tournament ranked 179th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. It is also 136th in 2-point shooting allowed (51%).
Reed has taken advantage of these matchups this season, scoring 20 points against UMass Lowell and 19 points against Columbia while only playing 42 minutes across those two games.
The Huskies have five double-digit scorers, but Reed leads the way at 13.7 points per game. He has a favorable matchup tonight, and I would expect him to get fed early and often. That should help him get 15 points for the fifth time in his past seven games.
Pick: Tarris Reed Over 14.5 Points
Koerner’s full bracket breakdown
