Washington
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US mortgage rates climbed this week as investors fret the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, undoing some of the welcomed progress in housing affordability.
The average rate of a standard, 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.11% in the week ending March 12, according to a survey of lenders by Freddie Mac released Thursday. That was biggest weekly increase since April, when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs caused bond yields to spike.
Just two weeks ago, the average rate slipped below 6% for the first time since 2022, crossing a key psychological threshold that generally makes people feel more confident about buying a home.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, which mortgage rates follow, has risen sharply since Trump and Israel launched attacks on Iran earlier this month, sending global energy prices skyrocketing and making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to deliver rate cuts anytime soon. On Thursday, the 10-year yield rose to 4.25%, its highest level since early February.
For years, the combination of elevated mortgage rates, rising home prices and a persistent housing shortage have shut out many Americans from the housing market. Home prices have stayed high, but lower rates in recent months have helped lure some buyers off the sidelines, with existing-home sales rising 1.7% in February, according to the National Association of Realtors.
But a prolonged war with Iran could push oil prices higher and revive inflation concerns, prompting investors to sell bonds, sending Treasury yields higher. That would likely push up mortgage rates as well, making it difficult for potential buyers to get their foot in the door, especially those buying a home for the first time.
“Without the geopolitical tensions, we would likely be seeing a 10‑year Treasury well south of 4%, with mortgage rates in the high 5s,” said Jeff DerGurahian, chief investment officer and head economist at loanDepot, in a recent analyst note. “All of this hinges on the price of oil.”
“If the conflict in the Middle East drags on and oil prices remain high, the Federal Reserve will err on the side of caution,” he added.
The threat of higher mortgage rates comes with the crucial spring home shopping season right around the corner, a time when there are “more buyers kicking the tires, visiting open houses,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economists, told reporters during a news conference Tuesday.
“The outlook for the spring homebuying season has become cloudier than it was even just a month ago,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at BrightMLS, said in commentary issued earlier this week. “If the conflict with Iran is limited, the housing market could rebound quickly. However, a prolonged conflict could stall home sales activity this spring.”
This story is developing and will be updated.
