College basketball conference tournaments, odds: Best college basketball bets for Thursday’s games

Selection Sunday is only a few days away, but in the meantime we have a feast of conference tournament games to watch — and potentially wager on. We’ve already seen upsets that will impact the bracket and plenty of buzzer-beaters — all signs that March is here.

Our college basketball handicappers — Matt Russell and Corbie Craig — will be here throughout March, providing their analysis on all things college basketball betting for Yahoo Sports.

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To begin, they look at their favorite bets for Thursday’s conference tourney games, along with a couple of futures wagers.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Thursday’s best college basketball bets

ACC: (6) Louisville (-2.5, 151.5) vs. (3) Miami (FL)

Russell: The Cardinals won again without Mikel Brown Jr., so the betting market is less willing to downgrade Louisville, despite not coming close to covering as a 6.5-point favorite over SMU. We’ll never know, but if the Mustangs hadn’t been without a prominent player of their own, they might have won outright.

Miami comes in as a relative unknown, but Jai Lucas has put together a team that didn’t have the opportunity to be measured against Duke and let a few close games slip to other top teams in the ACC. The Hurricanes’ frontline matches up well with Louisville, and without Brown there to loosen things up, I have the Canes as the more likely winner — even though they aren’t lined that way.

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Bet: Miami (FL) +1.5

Big 12: (5) Iowa State (-5.5, 143.5) vs. (4) Texas Tech

Russell: Maybe this line is all based on excitement over Iowa State beating Arizona State by roughly a billion points on Wednesday, but the Sun Devils were more than complicit, as they turned the ball over on almost every possession before anyone had lunch in Kansas City.

It’s more likely a reversion to the wide-scale sell on the Red Raiders after the season-ending injury to JT Toppin, but Texas Tech has proven time and again that it can compete without him. Having outstanding shooters has helped, but the Raiders defend the 3 as well. The Cyclones experienced this first-hand when Tech went to Hilton Coliseum and hid all the magic with a 82-73 win just three games ago.

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The line has drifted up to -5.5 because the Cyclones were -10.5 at home that day, but that line was also proven wrong.

Bet: Texas Tech +5.5

Big Ten: (9) Iowa (-1.5, 138.5) vs. (8) Ohio State

Russell: They’re not the best team in the Big Ten, but Ohio State might be the toughest. The Buckeyes can score too, which is key against a Hawkeyes team that’s actually known for defense this season. Some of that is by default, because if Bennett Stirtz doesn’t have it going, the Hawkeyes can look disorganized quickly, and they have to hang their hat on something.

Iowa was toward the bottom of the Big Ten in rebounds accrued and turnovers handed out, which are two things that Jake Diebler’s team can dine out on. The Buckeyes were among the conference title contenders in one thing — 3-point shooting, which is something we used to reserve for Iowa.

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Bet: Ohio State +1

Big Ten: (15) Northwestern vs. (7) Purdue (-11.5, 141.5)

Craig: Northwestern’s offense hasn’t been pretty, but the Wildcats have quietly found ways to drag opponents into their preferred tempo. After cashing an under in their first Big Ten tournament game, the matchup with Purdue sets up for a similar script.

The Wildcats’ unconventional lineup has created real problems for the Boilermakers. The ability to match speed with speed at the big man position disrupts Purdue’s primary action — the high ball screen orchestrated by Braden Smith. For years, Purdue has punished defenses with slip passes and quick interior looks off that action, but Northwestern’s mobility has taken those easy reads away. When those options disappear, Purdue’s offense tends to grind down.

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In the last meeting, the Boilermakers were forced into a much slower, more methodical half-court attack while searching for alternative scoring opportunities in a game they almost lost outright.

Bet: Under 141.5

Conference USA: (5) Middle Tennessee (-1.5, 131.5) vs. (4) Louisiana Tech

Craig: Conference tournament openers often come with ugly expectations, but this Conference USA matchup could quietly play faster than the market suggests.

The Bulldogs have played at one of the slowest tempos in the country all season, ranking near the bottom nationally in adjusted pace, but that reputation is a bit misleading. Louisiana Tech’s identity is built more on defensive control than a truly stagnant offense, often forcing opponents into uncomfortable shot profiles rather than simply bleeding the clock. That defensive funnel showed up in the first meeting with Middle Tennessee, where the Raiders settled for a heavy diet of contested looks inside the arc, playing directly into Louisiana Tech’s strengths. The matchup dynamics could look different in the rematch.

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The Blue Raiders rank among the more aggressive 3-point shooting teams in the country with a top-60 3-point attempt rate, and conference tournament prep time gives them an opportunity to adjust after seeing the Bulldogs’ scheme once already.

Bet: Over 130.5