Kentucky Derby 2026 top contenders for 152nd race at Churchill Downs

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March 16, 2026, 9:45 a.m. ET

Holy Bull winner Nearly, trained by Todd Pletcher, leads our ranking of the top five horses on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Two key prep races are set for Saturday — the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Incredibolt moved into the picture for Kentucky Derby 152 with Saturday’s victory in the $500,000 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.

Trained by Riley Mott, Incredibolt earned 50 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby on May 2 at Churchill Downs, virtually clinching a spot in the Run for the Roses.

The next three weekends are the biggest on the trail to the Kentucky Derby, with a total of seven races each offering a total of 200 qualifying points toward the Run for the Roses. Those include 100 points for the winners and 50 points for the runners-up.

Buy tickets to Kentucky Derby 152 at Churchill Downs

Two of those races are set for this Saturday — the $777,000, Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and the $1 million, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

With seven weeks to go until the Kentucky Derby, here’s our ranking of the top five contenders:

Owner: Centennial Farms (Donald Little).

Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

Jockey: John Velazquez.

Sire: Not This Time.

Road to Kentucky Derby points: 20 (No. 21).

Career earnings: $249,900.

Last race: Won Grade 3 Holy Bull on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream.

Likely next race: Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream.

Owners: Mrs. John Magnier; Michael Tabor; Derrick Smith; Peter Brant; Brook Smith; Summer Wind Equine (Jane Lyon).

Trainer: Chad Brown.

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione.

Sire: Gun Runner.

Road to Kentucky Derby points: 60 (No. 1).

Career earnings: $484,250.

Last race: Won Grade 2 Risen Star on Feb. 14 at Fair Grounds.

Likely next race: Grade 1 Blue Grass on April 4 at Keeneland.

Owner: Wathnan Racing (Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani).

Trainer: Brad Cox.

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Sire: Into Mischief.

Road to Kentucky Derby points: 50 (No. 6).

Career earnings: $403,539.

Last race: Won Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on Feb. 28 at Gulfstream.

Likely next race: Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream.

Owners: Robert and Lawana Low; Repole Stable (Mike Repole).

Trainer: Todd Pletcher.

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Sire: Into Mischief.

Road to Kentucky Derby points: 25 (No. 14).

Career earnings: $199,000.

Last race: Won Sam F. Davis on Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay.

Likely next race: Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 28 at Oaklawn.

Owners: Michael & Katherine Ball.

Trainer: Bill Mott.

Jockey: Junior Alvarado.

Sire: Constitution.

Road to Kentucky Derby points: 25 (No. 15).

Career earnings: $117,600.

Last race: Second in Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on Feb. 28 at Gulfstream.

Likely next race: Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream.

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