IPL 2026 playoffs scenarios – KKR, RR, CSK and PBKS have one spot to fight over

KKR’s win against MI keeps them in the hunt for the fourth playoff spot, and has pushed their NRR into the positive. If they win their last game, against DC at home on Sunday, and if RR and PBKS lose their final matches, then KKR can qualify without NRR coming into play.

If RR win, KKR will obviously be eliminated, but if RR lose, and PBKS beat LSG, then KKR’s relatively lower NRR will leave them requiring a huge win on Sunday. Even if PBKS win by just a run, the margin for KKR needs to be at least 52 runs (assuming first-innings totals of 200); if PBKS win by 10 runs, KKR will need a 61-run win to finish with a higher NRR.

CSK need several results going their way to take the fourth place. They need RR, PBKS and KKR to lose their last games. If those results do happen, then CSK can go past RR as their current NRRs are very close: for CSK to finish ahead of RR, the combined margin of those two results – RR’s defeat and CSK’s win – needs to be 25 runs (assuming a first-innings score of 200).

DC’s NRR is far too poor for them to even be a threat: even if CSK win by just one run, DC need to win by more than 200 runs to go past their NRR.

RR’s chances rest entirely in their hands. If they beat MI on Sunday, they will qualify with 16 points regardless of other results. In fact, they can even harbour hopes of finishing in the top two if GT and SRH lose, though the margins required make that quite unlikely.

GT have a higher NRR currently than SRH, and for RR to exceed that is a tough ask: if GT lose to CSK by 30 runs, RR need to beat MI by 50 runs. In other words, the sum of the margins of the two results needs to be 80 or more runs (assuming a first-innings score of 200).

If RR lose to MI, then they will only have a chance if PBKS and KKR both lose their last matches. KKR’s defeat will push DC up to 14 points, but the gap in NRRs is too huge for DC to overhaul. A bigger threat will be CSK going past them on NRR if they beat GT on Thursday – as mentioned above, their NRRs are close enough for CSK to overhaul with a relatively small win.

RR’s victory against LSG also means the final playoff spot will not be decided before May 24, the last day of the league stage.

Winless in their last six matches, PBKS will still make the playoffs if they beat LSG on Saturday and finish above KKR on NRR, and if RR lose to MI on Sunday. As mentioned above, their superior NRR gives them a significant advantage over KKR should it come down to that.

RR’s win has effectively ended DC’s campaign. Even if all other results go in their favour – PBKS, CSK and KKR all stay below 14 – and DC beat KKR, the margins required to go ahead of RR are too huge. The sum of the two result margins – RR’s defeat and DC’s win – will need to be around 230 runs for DC’s NRR to go past RR’s.

Given that their NRRs are so close, it will come down to the margins of victory if both GT and SRH win their last matches. If GT beat CSK by 20 runs (scoring 200), SRH will need to beat RCB by at least 33 runs to go past them and finish second in the group.